Individual-based network model for Rift Valley fever in Kabale District, Uganda

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Ecology
• Zoonotic Disease Research

Background:

• Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease impacting livestock and humans in endemic areas.
• Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is transmitted by mosquitoes, influenced by environmental factors.
• Recent outbreaks in Uganda highlight the role of livestock movement in RVFV spread.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate RVFV transmission dynamics in cattle populations.
• To evaluate the impact of mosquito control, livestock movement, and genetic diversity on RVF spread.
• To identify effective mitigation strategies for RVF epizootics.

Main Methods:

• A network-based model simulating RVFV transmission among cattle in 22 Ugandan locations.
• Incorporation of real-world livestock data, spatial factors, vector, and environmental influences.
• Quantitative evaluation of different intervention strategies.

Main Results:

• Cattle movement restriction during high mosquito abundance is crucial for controlling epizootic spread.
• Heterogeneous cattle populations (crossbreeds) exhibited lower susceptibility to RVFV infection.
• Mosquito control and livestock movement were identified as key factors in RVF mitigation.

Conclusions:

• Restricting livestock movement is a vital strategy to curb RVF outbreaks, especially during peak mosquito seasons.
• Promoting genetic diversity in cattle populations can enhance resistance to RVFV.
• Integrated strategies involving movement control and potentially breeding for resistance are recommended for RVF management.