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Evolution of threats in the global risk network
Xiang Niu1,2, Alaa Moussawi1,3, Gyorgy Korniss1,3
11Network Science and Technology Center, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), 110 Eighth Street, Troy, 12180 NY USA.
Applied Network Science
|March 7, 2019
Summary
Global economic growth increases network vulnerabilities, necessitating quantitative analysis. A Cascading Alternating Renewal Process models risk evolution, identifying key influences and long-term impacts for better understanding and mitigation strategies.
Area of Science:
- Complex Systems Science
- Economic Modeling
- Network Analysis
Background:
- Global economy is growing in size and complexity, increasing vulnerabilities.
- Interconnectedness leads to unforeseen consequences like pandemics and supply chain failures.
- Quantitative understanding of global network vulnerabilities is urgently needed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop methods for efficiently monitoring the evolution of the global economy.
- To answer critical questions regarding the dynamics of the global risk network.
- To analyze the asymptotic state and influence of risks within the global network.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a Cascading Alternating Renewal Process (CARP) to model the global risk network dynamics.
- Analyzed the asymptotic state of risks to understand long-term trajectories.
- Investigated the influence of each risk on others through quantitative analysis and computational simulations.
Main Results:
- The CARP approach effectively models the evolution of the global risk network.
- Identified the asymptotic state of risks, highlighting long-term challenges.
- Quantified the influence exerted by individual risks on the broader network.
Conclusions:
- A quantitative understanding of global network vulnerabilities is achievable through advanced modeling techniques.
- The CARP model provides insights into the dynamics and evolution of global economic risks.
- This research aids in identifying and potentially mitigating emergent global threats.
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