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Ecological niche modelling does not support climatically-driven dinosaur diversity decline before the
Alfio Alessandro Chiarenza1, Philip D Mannion2,3, Daniel J Lunt4
1Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK. a.chiarenza15@gmail.com.
Nature Communications
|March 8, 2019
Summary
Dinosaur diversity in North America during the Late Cretaceous may be underestimated. Habitat modeling suggests stable or increased dinosaur populations, contrary to a presumed decline before the mass extinction.
Area of Science:
- Paleontology
- Paleoclimatology
- Geology
Background:
- Dinosaur diversity before the Cretaceous/Paleogene extinction is debated: a long-term decline versus thriving populations.
- North America's latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) fossil record is key but subject to sampling biases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct dinosaur habitat in latest Cretaceous North America.
- To assess if dinosaur diversity decline was climatically driven or due to sampling bias.
Main Methods:
- Combined fossil occurrence data with ecological niche modeling.
- Utilized climatic and environmental modeling to quantify dinosaur habitat.
- Projected habitat changes across the continent.
Main Results:
- Ecological niche modeling indicated decreased habitability in sampled areas (rock outcrops).
- Continent-wide projections revealed stable or increased dinosaur habitat from Campanian to Maastrichtian.
- Geological changes (proto-Rocky Mountains, sea-level regression) reduced spatial sampling.
Conclusions:
- Apparent Late Cretaceous dinosaur decline in North America is likely an artifact of sampling bias.
- Habitat was likely stable or increasing, not decreasing due to climate.
- Maastrichtian dinosaur diversity is probably underestimated.
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