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Updated: Jan 28, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Mathematical modelling indicates that lower activity of the haemostatic system in neonates is primarily due to lower
Ivo Siekmann1,2, Stefan Bjelosevic3,4, Kerry Landman5
1Liverpool John Moores University, Department of Applied Mathematics, Liverpool, L3 3AF, England. i.siekmann@ljmu.ac.uk.
Abstract:
Haemostasis is governed by a highly complex system of interacting proteins. Due to the central role of thrombin, thrombin generation and specifically the thrombin generation curve (TGC) is commonly used as an indicator of haemostatic activity. Functional characteristics of the haemostatic system in neonates and children are significantly different compared with adults; at the same time plasma levels of haemostatic proteins vary considerably with age. However, relating one to the other has been difficult, both due to significant inter-individual differences for individuals of similar age and the complexity of the biochemical reactions underlying haemostasis. Mathematical modelling has been very successful at representing the biochemistry of blood clotting. In this study we address the challenge of large inter-individual variability by parameterising the Hockin-Mann model with data from individual patients, across different age groups from neonates to adults. Calculating TGCs for each patient of a specific age group provides us with insight into the variability of haemostatic activity across that age group. From our model we observe that two commonly used metrics for haemostatic activity are significantly lower in neonates than in older patients. Because both metrics are strongly determined by prothrombin and prothrombin levels are considerably lower in neonates we conclude that decreased haemostatic activity in neonates is due to lower prothrombin availability.
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