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Updated: Jan 28, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Silent progression in disease activity-free relapsing multiple sclerosis.
, Bruce A C Cree1, Jill A Hollenbach1
1UCSF Weill Institute for Neurosciences, Department of Neurology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA.
Long-term worsening is common in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) and is linked to brain atrophy, not just relapses. This "silent progression" highlights the need for new monitoring strategies in MS care.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Neuroimmunology
- Clinical Neuroscience
Background:
- Relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) management aims to prevent disability accumulation.
- Despite active treatment, many relapsing MS patients experience significant disability progression over time.
- No evidence of disease activity at two years does not guarantee long-term stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the contribution of clinical relapses and radiographic disease activity to long-term disability accumulation in relapsing MS.
- To identify factors driving progressive disability in patients with relapsing MS.
- To characterize the phenomenon of "silent progression" in multiple sclerosis.
Main Methods:
- Defined disability progression based on sustained increases in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores over 10 years.
- Utilized longitudinal analysis of relative brain volume loss.
- Employed linear mixed models, accounting for sex, age, disease duration, and HLA-DRB1*15:01 status.
Main Results:
- Clinical relapses were associated with transient, but not confirmed, disability increases.
- Accelerated brain atrophy (relative brain volume loss) was observed in patients with disability progression.
- Disability progression was significantly associated with greater rates of brain volume decline (p < 0.05).
Conclusions:
- Long-term disability worsening in relapsing MS is common and largely independent of clinical relapse activity.
- Accelerated brain atrophy is a key feature associated with progressive disability in MS.
- The concept of "silent progression" is proposed for insidious disability accrual in relapsing-remitting MS patients.
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