Most noninferiority trials were not designed to preserve active comparator treatment effects

To evaluate whether noninferiority trials are designed to adequately preserve the historical treatment effect of their active comparators.

We reviewed 162 noninferiority trials published in high-impact medical journals. We assessed whether trials were designed to ensure that interventions could only be declared noninferior if they preserved at least 50% of the active comparator's historical treatment effect.

Only 25 of 162 trials (15%) were designed so that interventions could only be declared noninferior if they preserved at least 50% of the active comparator's historical treatment effect. Most trials did not provide evidence that the active comparator was effective (n = 101), provided inadequate evidence (n = 18), or used a noninferiority margin that was too wide (n = 18). In a subset of 61 noninferiority trials which referenced a prior randomized trial or meta-analysis evaluating the active comparator, only 25 (41%) used a noninferiority margin small enough to preserve at least 50% of the active comparator's treatment effect. Overall, 14 of 162 noninferiority trials (9%) would have allowed the intervention to be declared noninferior even if it was worse than either placebo or another historical control.

Most noninferiority trials published in major medical journals could allow erroneous declarations of noninferiority.