Predictable hydrological and ecological responses to Holocene North Atlantic variability

Climate variations in the North Atlantic region can substantially impact surrounding continents. Notably, the Younger Dryas chronozone was named for the ecosystem effects of abrupt changes in the region at circa (ca.) 12.9-11.7 ka (millennia before 1950 AD). Holocene variations since then, however, have been hard to diagnose, and the responsiveness of terrestrial ecosystems continues to be debated. Here, we show that Holocene climate variations had spatial patterns consistent with changes in Atlantic overturning and repeatedly steepened the temperature gradient between Nova Scotia and Greenland since >8 ka. The multicentury changes correlated with hydrologic and vegetation changes in the northeast United States, including when an enhanced temperature gradient coincided with subregional droughts indicated by water-level changes at multiple coastal lakes at 4.9-4.6, 4.2-3.9, 2.8-2.1, and 1.3-1.2 ka. We assessed the variability and its effects by replicating signals across sites, using converging evidence from multiple methods, and applying forward models of the systems involved. We evaluated forest responses in the northeast United States and found that they tracked the regional climate shifts including the smallest magnitude (∼5% or 50 mm) changes in effective precipitation. Although a long-term increase in effective precipitation of >45% (>400 mm) could have prevented ecological communities from equilibrating to the continuously changing conditions, our comparisons confirm stable vegetation-climate relationships and support the use of fossil pollen records for quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. Overall, the network of records indicates that centennial climate variability has repeatedly affected the North Atlantic region with predictable consequences.