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Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus
Published on: May 31, 2020
The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates
S Metelmann1,2, C Caminade1,2, A E Jones1
11 Institute for Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool Liverpool , UK.
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|March 14, 2019
Summary
The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) can spread diseases. While currently unsuitable for most of the UK, climate change may allow it to establish across England and Wales within 50 years, necessitating surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Vector-borne disease ecology
- Climate change impact assessment
- Invasive species biology
Background:
- The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) transmits pathogens like dengue and chikungunya.
- This invasive species is spreading northwards, with established populations in Europe and recent egg findings in the UK.
- Existing climate models for mosquito establishment often neglect the diurnal temperature range (DTR).
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and apply a dynamical model assessing UK habitat suitability for Aedes albopictus.
- To incorporate the diurnal temperature range (DTR) into life cycle modeling for this mosquito species.
- To project future establishment potential of Aedes albopictus in the UK under climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Development of a dynamical life cycle model for Aedes albopictus.
- Inclusion of key environmental factors: diurnal temperature range (DTR), rainfall, photoperiod, and human population density.
- Utilisation of climate data sets to analyze habitat suitability and project future establishment across the UK.
Main Results:
- Currently, most of the UK is unsuitable for Aedes albopictus establishment.
- Specific areas in southeast England show higher suitability due to population density and importation risk.
- Future climate scenarios predict potential establishment across almost all of England and Wales within 50 years.
Conclusions:
- The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a critical factor in assessing mosquito habitat suitability.
- Climate change is projected to significantly increase the UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus.
- Continued mosquito surveillance is essential to monitor and manage the potential threat of invasive species like the Asian tiger mosquito.
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