The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Epidemiology
• Disease Ecology
• Machine Learning Applications in Biogeography

Background:

• Anthrax is a severe bacterial zoonotic disease with significant impacts on animal and human health, particularly in India.
• Existing anthrax risk assessments in India lack a comprehensive, country-wide geographical delineation.
• Understanding environmental drivers is crucial for effective anthrax prevention and control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the geographical suitability of anthrax across India.
• To identify key environmental features associated with anthrax risk.
• To inform targeted public health and veterinary interventions.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a machine learning approach within a biogeographic framework.
• Integrated diverse biotic and abiotic environmental variables.
• Modeled spatial patterns of anthrax suitability across India.

Main Results:

• The elephant-livestock interface emerged as the dominant feature influencing anthrax suitability.
• Water-soil balance, soil chemistry, and historical forest loss were also significant risk factors.
• Geographical suitability varied across different regions of India.

Conclusions:

• The elephant-livestock interface is critical for anthrax transmission cycles in India.
• Interventions focused on this interface, especially in human-altered ecosystems, can mitigate zoonotic spread.
• This study provides a data-driven foundation for national anthrax risk management.