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Uncertainty Quantification for Flow and Transport in Highly Heterogeneous Porous Media Based on Simultaneous

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This study quantifies groundwater flow model uncertainty using Gaussian process models. It reduces model complexity for efficient uncertainty quantification in heterogeneous porous media.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Hydrogeology
  • Computational mathematics

Background:

  • Groundwater flow models often face uncertainty due to random conductivity fields.
  • Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for reliable groundwater management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a method for quantifying uncertainty in groundwater flow models.
  • To reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional input and output spaces in these models.
  • To build an efficient surrogate model for stochastic groundwater flow analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Gaussian process modeling for uncertainty quantification.
  • Implemented simultaneous dimension reduction in conductivity input and flow field output spaces.
  • Developed a reduced-order surrogate model for stochastic analysis.
  • Validated the surrogate model using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis on the full-order model.

Main Results:

  • Successfully reduced the dimensionality of high-dimensional input and output spaces.
  • Retained qualitative features of the original groundwater flow model.
  • Developed a validated surrogate model for efficient uncertainty quantification.
  • Demonstrated significant reduction in computational complexity for stochastic modeling.

Conclusions:

  • Gaussian process models with dimension reduction offer an effective approach for groundwater flow uncertainty quantification.
  • The developed surrogate model provides a computationally efficient alternative for analyzing heterogeneous porous media flow.
  • This methodology enhances the reliability and applicability of groundwater flow models in complex scenarios.