Did Medicaid expansion matter in states with generous Medicaid?

It is unclear whether the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act had an effect on coverage in states with relatively generous pre-expansion Medicaid eligibility levels. We examined the effect of the Medicaid expansions on Medicaid coverage in 4 generous states: New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Delaware.

We used the American Community Survey (2011-2016) to estimate effects on coverage among nonelderly adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level.

We estimated differences in differences (DID) in marginal probabilities following probit models, comparing New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Delaware with nonexpansion states on the East Coast.

There is strong evidence of the effect in New York: DID estimates ranged from 3.3 to 5.2 percentage points. There is weak or no evidence of coverage gains in the other 3 states. Pronounced effects were found among the racial/ethnic majority (white, non-Hispanic white, and nonblack populations) in New York, as well as the working poor and previously eligible in New York and Massachusetts.

Even in states with relatively generous pre-expansion Medicaid programs, the expansion can produce nontrivial coverage gains, as evidenced by New York. Our findings of spillover effects may indicate the relative importance and success of a simplified enrollment process and increased media coverage in boosting enrollment in Medicaid. Our subgroup analyses highlight a potential need to improve access to office-based care to accommodate the growing population of the working poor on Medicaid and potential changes in the Medicaid risk pool served by managed care organizations and subsequent decreases in capitated payments.