Spatiotemporal patterns of malaria at cross-boundaries area in Menoreh Hills, Java, Indonesia

Comprehensive reports of malaria in Menoreh Hills, Central Java, Indonesia, a unique district cross-boundaries area under three districts and two provinces have been published previously. However, no study was performed to identify the hotspots of malaria in this cross-boundaries area, Kaligesing and Bagelen Subdistricts in Purworejo, Jawa Tengah Province and Kokap Subdistrict in Kulon Progo, Yogyakarta Province, using a longitudinal spatial data.

Monthly reports of malaria cases at primary health centres during 2005-2015 were collected and processed with ArcGIS and SaTScan to identify the malaria distribution at the village level. Malaria distribution was analysed using global spatial autocorrelation (Moran index) in ArcGIS. Cluster analysis was conducted using SaTScan purely spatial clustering and purely temporal clustering. Cluster characteristics resulted from three different approach were compared and analysed.

During the last 11 years, 3812 malaria cases were reported and the number of high case incidence (HCI) villages were increased continuously. Malaria spatial distribution in Menoreh Hills was clustered spatially. Using three different approaches of time period ranges, consistent conclusion was found i.e. most likely clusters always occurred in the Purworejo district while the secondary clusters appeared later in the cross-boundaries districts.

Spatiotemporal analysis of an 11 years surveillance data showed that hotspots of malaria cases in Menoreh Hills were continuously located in Purworejo district. The success of malaria elimination in the cross boundaries area of Menoreh Hills might be depended on the success in malaria case management and surveillance in this hotspot area.