Evaluation of hexavalent chromium concentration in water and its health risk with a system dynamics model

This study is the first to use reliable data sources to establish a reasonable mass balance of Cr(VI) contamination in river water, sediment, and farmland soil. A system dynamics model was used to establish the interrelationships among water, Cr(VI) contamination, and health effects in the Wu River watershed (between Taichung city and Changhua county) between 2018 and 2048 (30 years). The results show very little Cr(VI) contamination in rivers; most flowed downstream or settled in sediment, and the accumulation of Cr(VI) in the sediment increased throughout the study period. The highest Cr(VI) concentrations in farmland soil (338.46 mg/kg) were reached in Changhua county as a result of greater Cr(VI) contamination from upstream and local factories. This Cr(VI) contamination led to gastric cancer risks of 5.24 × 10^-4 and 4.38 × 10^-6 in Changhua county and Taichung city, respectively. Although most of the Cr(VI) contamination was discharged from Taichung City, greater health risks and losses occurred downstream in Changhua county; medical costs were 55 times higher. For total quality control, a reduction rate of at least 68% should be reached in the study area. These findings will be helpful in predicting the transmission of Cr(VI) contamination over long study periods with a systematic model.