External Validation of the Recurrence of Kidney Stone Nomogram in a Surgical Cohort

To assess the performance of recurrence of kidney stone (ROKS) nomogram in identifying first-time stone formers who will require future stone procedures. From January 2009 to February 2016, 2287 patients underwent surgical treatment for nephrolithiasis at our institution and 498 of them were eligible for this study. We defined recurrence as repeat surgery for symptomatic nephrolithiasis. We analyzed the performance of the nomogram with respect to discrimination, calibration, and the clinical net benefit. We also examined the performance of each individual variable from the nomogram. Over a median follow-up of 4.8 years (mean 4.6, IQR 3.1-6.1), 88 patients (17.7%) had recurrent nephrolithiasis requiring surgical treatment. The ROKS nomogram demonstrated moderate discriminative ability (AUC 0.655 for 2 years and 0.605 for 5 years). Calibration of the ROKS nomogram-based predictions was poor and net clinical benefit was minimal. Three of 11 predictors from the nomogram were statistically significantly associated with the risk of repeat surgery, with two of them representing similar clinical scenarios, namely symptomatic and nonsymptomatic renal stones. ROKS nomogram demonstrated limited discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of repeat surgery for symptomatic nephrolithiasis in our cohort of first-time stone formers. This may be caused by the differences between stone patients who do and do not require surgery and suggests the need for development of more precise prediction instruments.