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Modeling R₀ for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local

Jason K Blackburn1,2, Holly H Ganz3, José Miguel Ponciano4

  • 1Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA. jkblackburn@ufl.edu.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|March 20, 2019
PubMed

Insights

Calculating R₀ for environmentally transmitted diseases is complex due to pathogen reservoirs. Understanding host-environment interactions is key for accurate R₀ estimation and disease control.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Disease Ecology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Estimating R₀ (basic reproduction number) is crucial for understanding epidemic dynamics.
  • Disease transmission modes significantly impact R₀ calculation complexity, with environmental transmission posing unique challenges.
  • Pathogens with environmental transmission are often maintained in spatially complex local infectious zones (LIZs).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review the challenges in computing R₀ for environmentally transmitted diseases.
  • To highlight the importance of understanding host-environment-pathogen interactions.
  • To synthesize a quantitative framework for modeling and controlling environmentally transmitted diseases.

Main Methods:

  • Review of existing literature on disease transmission dynamics.
  • Analysis of landscape-level variables influencing host-pathogen-environment interactions.
  • Integration of geospatial and dynamical systems approaches for modeling.

Main Results:

  • Environmental transmission complicates R₀ calculation due to pathogen reservoirs in local infectious zones (LIZs).
  • Accurate R₀ estimation requires understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence.
  • Landscape-level factors critically influence host and pathogen population dynamics within environmental reservoirs.

Conclusions:

  • An integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach is necessary for accurate R₀ modeling of environmentally transmitted diseases.
  • Understanding host-environment interactions is vital for effective outbreak response and disease control strategies.
  • Quantitative frameworks are needed to manage diseases maintained in complex environmental reservoirs.
Keywords:
animal movementbasic reproductive number (R0)disease controldisease emergenceindirect disease transmissionpathogen spillover

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