Prediction of patient's response to OnabotulinumtoxinA treatment for migraine

Migraine affects the daily life of millions of people around the world. The most well-known disabling symptom associated with this illness is the intense headache. Nowadays, there are treatments that can diminish the level of pain. OnabotulinumtoxinA (BoNT-A) has become a very popular medication for treating migraine headaches in those cases in which other medication is not working, typically in chronic migraines. Currently, the positive response to Botox treatment is not clearly understood, yet understanding the mechanisms that determine the effectiveness of the treatment could help with the development of more effective treatments. To solve this problem, this paper sets up a realistic scenario of electronic medical records of migraineurs under BoNT-A treatment where some clinical features from real patients are labeled by doctors. Medical registers have been preprocessed. A label encoding method based on simulated annealing has been proposed. Two methodologies for predicting the results of the first and the second infiltration of the BoNT-A based treatment are contempled. Firstly, a strategy based on the medical HIT6 metric is described, which achieves an accuracy over 91%. Secondly, when this value is not available, several classifiers and clustering methods have been performed in order to predict the reduction and adverse effects, obtaining an accuracy of 85%. Some clinical features as Greater occipital nerves (GON), chronic migraine time evolution and others have been detected as relevant features when examining the prediction models. The GON and the retroocular component have also been described as important features according to doctors.