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Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan: a social contact survey
Lankeshwara Munasinghe1, Yusuke Asai1, Hiroshi Nishiura2
1Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Sapporo, Japan.
Theoretical Biology & Medical Modelling
|March 21, 2019
Summary
A social contact survey in Japan quantified transmission patterns. Results show age-dependent contacts, with school and workplace settings crucial on weekdays, informing infectious disease models and interventions like school closures.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Social contact surveys are vital for understanding infectious disease transmission dynamics.
- Quantifying contact patterns by age and location is crucial for accurate epidemiological modeling.
- Validating social contact matrices with real-world data enhances disease transmission estimates.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a comprehensive social contact survey across Japan.
- To estimate contact patterns based on age and geographical location.
- To validate a social contact matrix using influenza seroepidemiological data.
Main Methods:
- An internet-based questionnaire survey was administered to 1476 households nationwide.
- A social contact matrix was constructed using reciprocity and maximum likelihood estimation.
- Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 seroepidemiological data were analyzed to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0).
Main Results:
- A total of 10,682 weekday and 8867 weekend contacts were reported.
- Strong age-dependent assortativity was observed, particularly among children.
- Weekday contacts predominantly occurred in schools/workplaces (40%), decreasing to 14% on weekends.
Conclusions:
- The survey data provide valuable parameters for heterogeneous transmission models of infectious diseases in Japan.
- Age-dependent assortativity and high contact rates in schools highlight the potential efficacy of school closure interventions.
- The study successfully estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) for influenza A (H1N1) 2009 at 1.45.
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