Changing seasonal variation in births by sociodemographic factors: a population-based register study

Have seasonal variations in births by factors related to maternal education, age, parity and re-partnering changed over a 72-year period?

Seasonal variation in births has been reduced overall but also changed its pattern over the last seven decades.

The number of births varies markedly by season, but the causes of this variation are not fully understood. Seasonality of births is, in some populations, strongly influenced by sociodemographic factors.

A longitudinal study design was used by analysing the seasonal variation in live births between 1940 and 2012, and relating it to mothers' sociodemographic characteristics at the time of childbirth (maternal education, age, parity and re-partnering).

Register data on 6 768 810 live births in Sweden between 1940 and 2012 were used. Information on biological parents are available for more than 95% of all births. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to calculate predicted probabilities of giving birth for each calendar month.

Between 1940 and 1999, Swedish birth rates showed the typical seasonal variation with high numbers of births during the spring, and low numbers of births during the last quarter of the year. However, during the 21st century, the seasonal variation in fertility declined so that only minor variation in birth rates between February and September now remains. Still, the pattern of low birth rates at the end of the year remains and has even become more pronounced from the 1980s onwards. The characteristic 'Christmas effect' that used to be visible in September has vanished over the last 30 years. The roles in seasonal variation of maternal education, the mother's age, parity and instances where the mother has re-partnered between subsequent births changed during the second half of the 20th century. From 1980s onwards, the decline in birth rates during the last quarter of the year became particularly pronounced among highly educated mothers. Over the 72 years studied, the seasonal variation among first-time mothers declined steadily and has almost disappeared at the end of the study period. Using data that cover ~180 000 births in each month, all meaningful results are statistically significant.

The study uses data from one Nordic country only, making it difficult to draw conclusions that may hold for other countries.

The typical seasonal variation reported for Sweden between 1940 and 1999, with high numbers of births during the spring and low numbers of births during the last quarter of the year, is in line with results from most other European countries during the same time period. However, the significant decline in seasonal variation in the early 21st century is a novel development. The study underlines that in a society with low fertility and efficient birth control, active choices and behaviours associated with an individual's sociodemographic characteristics tend to matter more for the seasonal timing of childbearing than environmental factors related to the physiological ability to reproduce and cultural-behavioural factors related to the frequency of intercourse.

The study was funded by the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet) via the Swedish Initiative for Research on Microdata in the Social and Medical Sciences (SIMSAM): Stockholm University SIMSAM Node for Demographic Research (grant registration number 340-2013-5164). The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Not applicable.