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Updated: Jan 27, 2026

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Validation of early drain removal after pancreatoduodenectomy based on modified fistula risk score stratification: a
Dimitrios Xourafas1, Aslam Ejaz2, Allan Tsung2
1Department of Surgery, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA.
Background:
Recent studies on postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) prevention following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) have proposed omission of perioperative drains for negligible/low-risk patients and early drain removal (≤POD3) for intermediate/high-risk patients with POD1 drain amylase levels of ≤5000 U/L, though this has not been validated using a nationwide cohort.
Methods:
The ACS-NSQIP targeted pancreatectomy database from 2014 to 2016 was queried to identify patients who underwent PD. Patients with POD1 drain amylase levels of ≤5000 U/L were initially stratified as negligible/low- or intermediate/high-risk based on a previously validated modified fistula risk score (mFRS). Differences in relevant postoperative outcomes were then compared among patients who underwent early (≤POD3) vs. late (≥POD4) drain removal.
Results:
Among 1825 patients who underwent PD, 1540 (84%) had POD1 drain amylase of ≤5000 U/L: 719 (47%) high-risk and 821 (53%) low-risk. Among high-risk patients, early drain removal (n = 205, 29%) was associated with lower rates of POPF (3% vs. 18%, p < 0.001), clinically relevant (CR)-POPF (2% vs. 15%, p < 0.001), overall morbidity (27% vs. 47%, p < 0.001), serious morbidity (15% vs. 24%, p = 0.007) and hospital length of stay (LOS, 7 vs. 8 days, p < 0.001). Similarly, early drain removal in low-risk patients (n = 273, 33%) was associated with decreased rates of POPF (1% vs. 6%, p = 0.003), CR-POPF (1% vs. 5%, p = 0.014), overall morbidity (28% vs. 41%, p = 0.0003), serious morbidity (8% vs. 14%, p = 0.015) and LOS (6 vs. 8 days, p < 0.001). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, early drain removal remained associated with significantly decreased odds of POPF, CR-POPF, overall and serious morbidity as well as LOS among both high- and low-risk patients (all p < 0.05).
Conclusions:
Among patients with POD1 drain amylase ≤5000 U/L following PD, early drain removal (≤POD3) is associated with improved postoperative outcomes among both high- and low-risk patients. Early drain removal based on POD1 drain amylase is indicated regardless of mFRS.
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