External Validation of START nomogram to predict 3-Month unfavorable outcome in Chinese acute stroke patients

Recently, the NIHSS STroke Scale score, Age, pre-stroke mRS score, onset-to-treatment Time (START nomogram) predicts 3-month functional outcome after intravenous thrombolysis in ischemic stroke patients. However, this model has not yet been an external validation. We aim to validate the performance of START nomogram.

Data were derived from the stroke center of the Nanjing First Hospital (China). Patients who lacked the necessary data to calculate the nomogram and missed 3-month modified Ranking scale scores were excluded. Modified Rankin Scale score more than 2 at 3-month was assessed as an unfavorable outcome. We used areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC-ROC) to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test.

The final cohort included 306 eligible patients. For 3-month unfavorable outcome, the AUC-ROC of the START nomogram was .766 (95%CI: .7013-.8304, P < .0001), suggesting good discrimination in the START nomogram. It also showed good calibration (HL goodness of fit test P = .1261) in the external validation sample.

The START nomogram with good predictive performance is a reliable and simple clinical instrument to predict unfavorable outcome after acute stroke.