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The hammam effect or how a warm ocean enhances large scale atmospheric predictability
Davide Faranda1,2, M Carmen Alvarez-Castro3,4, Gabriele Messori3,5,6
1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE-IPSL, CEA Saclay l'Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. davide.faranda@cea.fr.
Nature Communications
|March 23, 2019
Summary
Anthropogenic climate change may increase atmospheric predictability. Warmer oceans, termed the hammam effect, enhance predictability by promoting more predictable zonal weather patterns over the North Atlantic.
Area of Science:
- Atmospheric science
- Climate dynamics
- Dynamical systems theory
Background:
- Atmospheric chaos limits short-term weather predictability.
- The impact of climate change on weather forecast difficulty is poorly understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how anthropogenic climate change affects sub-seasonal weather predictability.
- To analyze changes in atmospheric circulation dynamics under historical and future climate scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized dynamical systems theory metrics to characterize atmospheric circulation.
- Analyzed centennial reanalyses and CMIP5 simulations for the North Atlantic region.
- Employed AMIP simulations with elevated ocean temperatures and CO2 concentrations.
Main Results:
- Most datasets indicate increased atmospheric predictability in the future.
- A warmer ocean significantly drives this increase in predictability (the "hammam effect").
- Enhanced predictability is linked to a shift towards more predictable zonal atmospheric patterns.
Conclusions:
- Anthropogenic climate change, particularly ocean warming, is projected to enhance sub-seasonal atmospheric predictability.
- The "hammam effect" describes the mechanism by which warmer oceans lead to more predictable weather patterns.
- Understanding these changes is crucial for future climate adaptation and weather forecasting.
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