A Bayesian Adaptive Design in Cancer Phase I Trials using Dose Combinations in the Presence of a Baseline Covariate

A Bayesian adaptive design for dose finding of a combination of two drugs in cancer phase I clinical trials that takes into account patients heterogeneity thought to be related to treatment susceptibility is described. The estimation of the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) curves is a function of a baseline covariate using two cytotoxic agents. A logistic model is used to describe the relationship between the doses, baseline covariate, and the probability of dose limiting toxicity (DLT). Trial design proceeds by treating cohorts of two patients simultaneously using escalation with overdose control (EWOC), where at each stage of the trial, the next dose combination corresponds to the α quantile of the current posterior distribution of the MTD of one of two agents at the current dose of the other agent and the next patient's baseline covariate value. The MTD curves are estimated as function of Bayes estimates of the model parameters at the end of trial. Average DLT, pointwise average bias, and percent of dose recommendation at dose combination neighborhoods around the true MTD are compared to the design that uses the covariate to the one that ignores the baseline characteristic. We also examine the performance of the approach under model misspecifications for the true dose-toxicity relationship. The methodology is further illustrated by the case of a pre-specified discrete set of dose combinations.