Scalp recorded spike ripples predict seizure risk in childhood epilepsy better than spikes

In the past decade, brief bursts of fast oscillations in the ripple range have been identified in the scalp EEG as a promising non-invasive biomarker for epilepsy. However, investigation and clinical application of this biomarker have been limited because standard approaches to identify these brief, low amplitude events are difficult, time consuming, and subjective. Recent studies have demonstrated that ripples co-occurring with epileptiform discharges ('spike ripple events') are easier to detect than ripples alone and have greater pathological significance. Here, we used objective techniques to quantify spike ripples and test whether this biomarker predicts seizure risk in childhood epilepsy. We evaluated spike ripples in scalp EEG recordings from a prospective cohort of children with a self-limited epilepsy syndrome, benign epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes, and healthy control children. We compared the rate of spike ripples between children with epilepsy and healthy controls, and between children with epilepsy during periods of active disease (active, within 1 year of seizure) and after a period of sustained seizure-freedom (seizure-free, >1 year without seizure), using semi-automated and automated detection techniques. Spike ripple rate was higher in subjects with active epilepsy compared to healthy controls (P = 0.0018) or subjects with epilepsy who were seizure-free ON or OFF medication (P = 0.0018). Among epilepsy subjects with spike ripples, each month seizure-free decreased the odds of a spike ripple by a factor of 0.66 [95% confidence interval (0.47, 0.91), P = 0.021]. Comparing the diagnostic accuracy of the presence of at least one spike ripple versus a classic spike event to identify group, we found comparable sensitivity and negative predictive value, but greater specificity and positive predictive value of spike ripples compared to spikes (P = 0.016 and P = 0.006, respectively). We found qualitatively consistent results using a fully automated spike ripple detector, including comparison with an automated spike detector. We conclude that scalp spike ripple events identify disease and track with seizure risk in this epilepsy population, using both semi-automated and fully automated detection methods, and that this biomarker outperforms analysis of spikes alone in categorizing seizure risk. These data provide evidence that spike ripples are a specific non-invasive biomarker for seizure risk in benign epilepsy with centrotemporal spikes and support future work to evaluate the utility of this biomarker to guide medication trials and tapers in these children and predict seizure risk in other at-risk populations.