[The report "Care of the Aged": an ambiguous future scenario]

The Dutch governmental report 'Care of the elderly' is evaluated in the light of the findings of the study 'The elderly and their health in the Netherlands, 1984-2000'. The latter delineates three scenario's, by which in the near future the need of provisions may develop. The reference-scenario assumes a stable, relative demand for provisions, the growth-scenario an increasing and the shrinkage-scenario a decreasing demand. For economical and ideological reasons the Dutch government adheres to the shrinkage-scenario. Nevertheless, the same government also expresses severe doubts concerning the underlying assumptions. The proposed measures appear not to be consistent with the shrinkage-scenario. It is concluded that 'Care of the elderly' demonstrates ambiguity in its view on the future need of provisions by the elderly. This ambiguity appears to be largely determined by restricted financial and regulating means.