Is thyroid nodule volume predictive for malignancy?

We aimed to determine the roles of preoperative thyroid nodule diameter and volume in the prediction of malignancy.

The medical records of patients who underwent thyroidectomy between January 2007 and December 2014 were reviewed. The nodule diameters were grouped as < 1 cm, 1-1.9 cm, 2-3.9 cm and ≥ 4 cm, and volume was grouped as > 5 cm3, 5-9.9 cm3 and > 10 cm3. ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve analysis was performed to find the optimal cutoff value of diameter and volume that can predict malignancy.

There were 5561 thyroid nodules in 2463 patients. Five hundred and forty (9.7%) nodules were < 1 cm, 2,413 (43.4%) were 1-1.9 cm, 1,600 (28.8%) were 2-3.9 cm and 1,008 (18.1%) were ≥ 4 cm. Malignancy rates were 25.6%,10.6%, 9.7% and 8.5% in nodules < 1 cm, 1-1.9 cm, 2-3.9 cm and ≥ 4 cm, respectively. When classified according to volume, 3,664 (65.9%) nodules were < 5 cm3, 594 (10.7%) were 5-9.9 cm3 and 1,303 (23.4%) were ≥ 10 cm3. The malignancy rates were 12.7%, 11.4% and 7.8% for the nodules < 5 cm3, 5-9.9 cm3 and ≥ 10 cm3, respectively (p < 0.001). In ROC curve analysis, an optimal cutoff value for diameter or volume that can predict malignancy in all thyroid nodules or nodules ≥ 4 cm could not be determined.

In this surgical series, malignancy risk did not increase with increasing nodule diameter or volume. Although the volume of malignant nodules ≥ 4 cm was higher than that of benign nodules ≥ 4 cm, there was no optimal cutoff value. The diameter or volume of the nodule cannot be used to predict malignancy or decide on surgical resection.