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Headache Triggers as Surprise.

Dana P Turner1, Adriana D Lebowitz1, Ivana Chtay1

  • 1Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.

Headache
|March 29, 2019
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Unexpected headache triggers, like stress or alcohol, are linked to increased headache activity. Quantifying the "surprise" of these triggers helps predict headache onset more effectively.

Keywords:
forecastinginformation theorymigrainestresstrigger

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Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Data Science
  • Information Theory

Background:

  • Headache triggers are not fully understood.
  • Proposes characterizing triggers by their
  • surprise
  • or unexpectedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test if surprising headache trigger experiences correlate with daily headache activity.
  • To investigate the role of information theory in understanding headache triggers.

Main Methods:

  • Secondary analysis of the Headache Prediction Study.
  • Prospective cohort study with 95 episodic migraine participants over 4195 days.
  • Measured daily headache triggers (caffeine, alcohol, stress, mood) and calculated their
  • surprisal
  • using probability distributions.

Main Results:

  • Headache attacks occurred on 38.5% of days.
  • Individual trigger surprisals were associated with future headache attacks (ORs 1.11-1.30).
  • A summed surprisal score reliably predicted new onset headaches (OR 1.35), improving discrimination between headache and non-headache days.

Conclusions:

  • Diverse headache triggers can be uniformly described by their probability distributions.
  • Rare or surprising trigger values consistently associate with headache activity.
  • This concept may help conceptualize a wide range of headache triggers.