Validation of a new score for outcome prediction in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction

Most models for outcome prediction in heart failure are under-utilized because complex or including non-routine clinical use variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic score for patients with stable heart failure, including only easily obtainable parameters.

In 376 outpatients with heart failure (ejection fraction ≤40%), twelve variables were individually correlated with 5-year mortality. Those resulted significant predictors of cardiac and overall mortality were used to obtain a risk score. It was validated on a different sample of 325 patients previously enrolled in other clinical studies, according to tertiles of score.

Previous acute decompensated heart failure, atrial fibrillation, ejection fraction <30%, not-taking beta-blockers, chronic renal failure were the variables included in the final model. There was a significant difference in 5-year cardiac (P=0.004) and all-cause (P=0.003) mortality risk. Compared to the first tertile of the score, the second tertile and the third tertile had an increasing risk for cardiac cause admission (respectively, HR: 2.7; 95% CI: 1.5-4.9 and HR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.7-6.1) and for heart failure worsening hospitalization (HR:4.3; 95% CI: 1.3-14.5 and HR: 3.8; 95% CI: 1.03-14.1) as well as the third tertile (respectively, HR:3.2; 95% CI: 1.7-6.1 and HR:3.8; 95% CI: 1.03-14.1.).

Our prognostic model, named OSR HF Risk Score, is a simple, quick, inexpensive tool for predicting patient outcome in 5 years. It might be used as an adjunctive tool in outpatients evaluation alongside more complex scores.