Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jan 27, 2026
Experimental Methodology for Estimation of Local Heat Fluxes and Burning Rates in Steady Laminar Boundary Layer Diffusion Flames
Published on: June 1, 2016
[Estimation of heat-related deaths in Germany between 2001 and 2015]
Matthias An der Heiden1, Stefan Muthers2, Hildegard Niemann3
1Abteilung für Infektionsepidemiologie, Robert Koch-Institut, Seestraße 10, 13353, Berlin, Deutschland. AnderHeidenM@rki.de.
Background:
During the summers of 2003 and 2015, heat was found to be the cause of a substantial number of deaths in Germany. Until now, estimates for the total number of heat-related deaths were only available regionally in Germany. For the summer of 2003, an analysis for Baden-Württemberg was extrapolated to the whole of Germany.
Objectives:
Our analysis tries to prove a stable statistical relationship between heat and mortality and to use this to quantify the number of heat-related deaths in Germany between the years 2001 and 2015.
Materials And Methods:
By fitting a nonlinear statistical model, we estimated exposure-response curves that describe the influence of heat on the mortality rate. The performance of different indicators for heat stress was compared.
Results:
The comparison of the different indicators for heat showed that the weekly mean temperature was most useful to explain the course of the weekly mortality during the summer. The relation between mortality rate and weekly mean temperature varied between age groups and regions in Germany (north, middle, south). The age groups (75-84) and (85+) were most affected by heat. The highest number of heat-related deaths was 7600 (95% CI 5500-9900), found for the summer 2003, followed by 6200 (4000; 8000) in the summer 2006 and 6100 (4000; 8300) in the summer 2015.
Conclusions:
We could show that even in weekly data on mortality, a clear influence of heat could be identified. A national surveillance of mortality that allows real-time monitoring would be desirable.
Related Concept Videos
02:46Quantifying Heat
01:16Specific Heat
For example, increasing the temperature of one gram of water by 1°C requires one calorie of heat energy and can be written as 1 cal/g-°C, or...
01:12Heat Flow and Specific Heat
01:06What are Estimates?
The estimate for the mean of a sample is denoted by ͞x, whereas the mean of the population is designated as μ. Further, parameters such...
02:44Heating and Cooling Curves
For instance, the addition of heat raises the temperature of a solid; the amount of heat absorbed depends on the heat capacity of the solid (q = mcsolidΔT). According to thermochemistry, the relation between the amount of heat absorbed or released by a substance, q, and its...
01:20Estimation of k and VD of Aminoglycosides