Reshuffling the global R&D deck, 1980-2050

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Science and Technology Policy
• Global Development

Background:

• Recent trends in science spending indicate a potential global reshuffle.
• The extent and long-term implications of these changes are not fully understood.
• Emerging economies like China, Korea, India, and Brazil are key players in this shift.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze comprehensive research and development (R&D) spending estimates.
• To understand the long-term geographical shifts in global R&D.
• To assess the implications for domestic and international economic development.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing comprehensive R&D spending estimates.
• Analyzing the evolving structure of past R&D spending.
• Projecting future trends based on current policies and priorities.

Main Results:

• A significant, albeit partial and irregular, reshuffle of global R&D is occurring.
• A continuing shift in R&D geography towards Asia is projected.
• A substantial and growing gap between scientific 'haves' and 'have-nots' is anticipated.

Conclusions:

• The global R&D landscape is undergoing a game-changing transformation.
• These shifts have profound economic development implications.
• The disparity between scientifically advanced and less advanced nations is likely to increase, particularly impacting poorer countries.