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Reshuffling the global R&D deck, 1980-2050.

Steven P Dehmer1, Philip G Pardey2, Jason M Beddow2

  • 1HealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States of America.

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Summary
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Global research and development (R&D) spending is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with a notable shift towards Asia. This reshuffling may widen the gap between scientifically advanced nations and those with fewer resources.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Science and Technology Policy
  • Global Development

Background:

  • Recent trends in science spending indicate a potential global reshuffle.
  • The extent and long-term implications of these changes are not fully understood.
  • Emerging economies like China, Korea, India, and Brazil are key players in this shift.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze comprehensive research and development (R&D) spending estimates.
  • To understand the long-term geographical shifts in global R&D.
  • To assess the implications for domestic and international economic development.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing comprehensive R&D spending estimates.
  • Analyzing the evolving structure of past R&D spending.
  • Projecting future trends based on current policies and priorities.

Main Results:

  • A significant, albeit partial and irregular, reshuffle of global R&D is occurring.
  • A continuing shift in R&D geography towards Asia is projected.
  • A substantial and growing gap between scientific 'haves' and 'have-nots' is anticipated.

Conclusions:

  • The global R&D landscape is undergoing a game-changing transformation.
  • These shifts have profound economic development implications.
  • The disparity between scientifically advanced and less advanced nations is likely to increase, particularly impacting poorer countries.