Longitudinal Changes in Proportions of Dental Services Provided by Australian Dentists, 1983 to 2010

The objective of the study was to estimate the longitudinal change over a 26-y period in the proportion of dental services provided in 10 main service provision areas by Australian dentists. A random sample of Australian dentists was surveyed approximately every 5 y, commencing 1983 to 1984. The mean proportion of dental services provided was calculated from practitioner activity logs. Mixed effects regression models estimated the longitudinal change in the proportion of services provided, by dentists' age and birth-year cohort. Response rates across data collection waves ranged from 67% to 76%. Between 1983 to 1984 and 2009 to 2010, the mean proportion of diagnostic, preventive, and crown/bridge services provided tended to increase, and the mean proportion of restorative, oral surgery, and prosthodontic services tended to decrease. Mean proportions of endodontic and orthodontic services fluctuated. Relative to the youngest cohort (born after 1984), across cohorts of older to younger dentists, the proportions of diagnostic and preventive services increased, and restorative and prosthodontic decreased. Older cohorts provided the lowest proportions of diagnostic and preventive services (oldest cohort born before 1918: β = -32.1 ± 4.8; cohort born 1934 to 1938: β = -11.6 ± 3.2, respectively). Older cohorts provided the highest proportions of restorative and prosthodontic services (born before 1918: β = 27.3 ± 5.6; born 1919 to 1923: β = 10.5 ± 2.4, respectively). Some service area trends varied across birth-year cohorts. Endodontic service provision was declining for younger cohorts but increasing for older cohorts. Preventive service provision was increasing for younger cohorts but declining for older cohorts. This study identified trends not evident in previous time-series analysis. First, provision of restorative and oral surgery services, as a proportion of all services provided, was declining. Second, there were competing intercohort trends. These may indicate that new norms in dental education are influencing clinical decision making and that new trends in dental service provision may emerge as older dentists retire. Knowledge Transfer Statement: This study identified several trends in dental service provision and indicated that not all trends were consistent across all birth-year cohorts. Findings inform dental health care policy and priorities for dental education. In addition, the identified trends have implications for the future composition of the oral health workforce.