Hydrology induces intraspecific variation in freshwater fish morphology under contemporary and future climate...

Predicting future changes in habitat-associated species traits is an important step in understanding the ecological and evolutionary consequences of environmental change. However, models projecting phenotypic responses to future climate change typically assume populations will respond similarly across the range of a species, while local adaptation and spatial variation in environmental changes are rarely considered. In this study, among-population phenotypic variability was coupled with geographic variation in anticipated hydrologic changes to examine patterns of population-level phenotypic changes expected under future climatic change. To estimate phenotypic responses to watershed hydrology, phenotype-environment associations between body shape and contemporary streamflow were quantified among populations of six species of fishes (Cyprinidae). Future streamflow estimates (2070-2099) were then used to project body shapes within populations, assuming the same phenotype-environment relationships. All species exhibited significant associations between body shape and contemporary streamflow discharge and variability. However, these relationships were not consistent, even among species occupying similar vertical positions in the water column. When these phenotype-environment relationships were projected into future streamflow conditions, populations are not expected to respond uniformly across the species' ranges, and all but one species exhibited projected morphologies outside of the current range of morphological variation. These findings suggest local adaptation and spatial heterogeneity in environmental changes interact to influence variation in the degree of expected phenotypic responses to climate change at both the species and population level.