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Guilherme Zubatch da Cunha1, Eniuce Menezes de Souza2, Márcia Lorena Alves Dos Santos3
1Programa de Pós-Graduação em Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil.
Introduction:
Because the antibody neutralizing respiratory syncytial virus (anti-RSV) has a short period of immunization and high cost, the identification of regions and months of highest occurrence of bronchiolitis is very important.
Methods:
An Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model was constructed for count data and compared to the standard time-series Poisson regression model.
Results:
The metropolitan area of Paraná presented the highest average occurrence from May to July.
Conclusions:
The constructed model presented a better fit and allowed prediction of when and where the bronchiolitis hospitalizations are distributed.