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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Strategies for the Super-Aged Dialysis Population: Survival Benefits or Alternative Goals?
Satoko Sakurai1, Norio Hanafusa2, Takanobu Nomura3
1Department of Nephrology and Endocrinology, The University of Tokyo School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Background/Aims:
Japan's aging population has prominent epidemiological and patient characteristics. The number of hemodialysis patients aged ≥70 years is increasing. Age-adjusted mortality is improving, but some cause-specific mortalities remain unchanged, including infectious disease and malignancy, requiring combative strategies. However, survival trends for patients aged 90 years or older are not known.
Methods:
We examined annual data reported by the -Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry for the period 1987-2014 to determine survival trends.
Results:
Survival in the super-aged group (≥90 years) is still mostly unimproved. In terms of cause-specific survival, especially death due to heart failure differs distinctly between this group and the remaining elderly patients, indicating that improving their survival is difficult. Alternative dialysis goals could therefore be considered. The major dialysis objective in this population could be to maintain quality of life and limit functional impairment.
Conclusion:
Survival of the super-aged population has not improved in the last 2 decades. Thus, withholding or withdrawing dialysis and providing conservative management without dialysis treatment could be an important option for patients aged 90 years or older.
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