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The Good Judgment Project won forecasting tournaments by integrating psychological insights on individual differences and debiasing with economic market mechanisms. This interdisciplinary approach, combining elite teams and statistical aggregation, improved political event forecasting accuracy.

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Area of Science:

  • Social Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics
  • Political Science

Background:

  • U.S. intelligence community sponsored forecasting tournaments (2011-2015) to improve political event prediction.
  • University researchers were challenged to develop superior forecasting methodologies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and develop superior methods for forecasting political events.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of interdisciplinary collaboration in forecasting.

Main Methods:

  • The Good Judgment Project balanced collaboration and competition among diverse disciplinary teams.
  • Psychologists focused on individual differences and debiasing; economists on market mechanisms.
  • Statisticians assisted in developing probability estimates and aggregation formulas.

Main Results:

  • Psychologists initially led in identifying forecasting skill differences and debiasing techniques.
  • Economists excelled in creating market mechanisms for distilling predictive signals.
  • Psychologists ultimately surpassed market mechanisms by creating superior probability estimates and aggregating diverse expert judgments using a log-odds formula.

Conclusions:

  • Interdisciplinary collaboration, leveraging strengths from psychology, economics, and statistics, significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy.
  • The most effective approach involved forming elite teams of top forecasters and aggregating their diverse judgments.
  • Success was achieved by integrating disciplinary expertise while acknowledging and addressing individual and team limitations.