Rising Oceans Guaranteed: Arctic Land Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise

This paper reviews sea level contributions from land ice across the Arctic, including Greenland. We summarize ice loss measurement methods, ice loss mechanisms, and recent observations and projections, and highlight research advances over the last 3-5 years and remaining scientific challenges.

Mass loss across the Arctic began to accelerate during the late twentieth century, with projections of continued loss across all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Recent research has improved knowledge of ice hydrology and surface processes, influences of atmospheric and oceanic changes on land ice, and boundary conditions such as subglacial topography. New computer models can also more accurately simulate glacier and ice sheet evolution.

Rapid Arctic ice loss is underway, and future ice loss and sea level rise are guaranteed. Research continues to better understand and model physical processes and to improve projections of ice loss rates, especially after 2050.