Probabilistic analytical modelling of predator-prey interactions in fishes

Predation is a fundamental interaction between species, yet it is largely unclear what tactics are successful for the survival or capture of prey. One challenge in this area comes with how to test theoretical ideas about strategy with experimental measurements of features such as speed, flush distance and escape angles. Tactics may be articulated with an analytical model that predicts the motion of predator or prey as they interact. However, it may be difficult to recognize how the predictions of such models relate to behavioural measurements that are inherently variable. Here, we present an alternative approach for modelling predator-prey interactions that uses deterministic dynamics, yet incorporates experimental kinematic measurements of natural variation to predict the outcome of biological events. This technique, called probabilistic analytical modelling (PAM), is illustrated by the interactions between predator and prey fish in two case studies that draw on recent experiments. In the first case, we use PAM to model the tactics of predatory bluefish ( Pomatomus saltatrix) as they prey upon smaller fish ( Fundulus heteroclitus). We find that bluefish perform deviated pure pursuit with a variable pursuit angle that is suboptimal for the time to capture. In the second case, we model the escape tactics of zebrafish larvae ( Danio rerio) when approached by adult predators of the same species. Our model successfully predicts the measured patterns of survivorship using measured probability density functions as parameters. As these results demonstrate, PAM is a data-driven modelling approach that can be predictive, offers analytical transparency, and does not require numerical simulations of system dynamics. Though predator-prey interactions demonstrate the use of this technique, PAM is not limited to studying biological systems and has broad utility that may be applied towards understanding a wide variety of natural and engineered dynamical systems where data-driven modelling is beneficial.