Estimating city-level energy consumption of residential buildings: A life-cycle dynamic simulation model

The residential building sector consumes a large amount of energy and is recognized as a high potential area where urban energy consumption and carbon emission can be reduced. To reduce the residential energy consumption, relevant policies and measures have been formulated in different places. However, due to the lack of adequate information in the process of policy formulation, the effectiveness of most energy-saving policies for residential buildings seems to be unsatisfactory. Although previous studies have analyzed the energy consumption for a single building or for the whole construction industry at the national level, few of them investigated the life-cycle energy consumption of residential buildings at the city level. Since municipal governments are the key implementers for the reduction of urban energy consumption, a city-level analysis on the energy consumption of residential buildings is highly needed for the policy making. To fill the research gap, this paper develops a life-cycle dynamic simulation model to fully reveal the characteristics of energy consumption of residential buildings at the city level. This easy-to-use model is validated by a case study of Beijing, which demonstrates its applicability and capability to help analyze multiple indicators of residential energy consumption and the dynamic trends of these indicators for municipal governments. Furthermore, the model can be used under the condition of limited input data, and can provide the situation analysis and simulation results of energy consumption of urban residential buildings for facilitating the policy making by municipal governments.