Extended STIRPAT model-based driving factor analysis of energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan

Extended stochastic impact by regression on population, affluence, and technology model incorporating ridge regression was used to analyze the driving mechanism of energy-related CO₂ emissions in Kazakhstan during 1992-2014. The research period was divided into two stages based on GDP of Kazakhstan in 1991 (85.70 × 10⁹ dollars), the first stage (1992-2002), GDP < 85.70 × 10⁹ dollars, the stage of economic recovery; the second stage (2003-2014), GDP > 85.70 × 10⁹ dollars, the stable economic development stage. The results demonstrated that (1) population scale and the technological improvement were the dominant contributors to promote the growth of the CO₂ emissions during 1992-2014 in Kazakhstan. (2) Economic growth and industrialization played more positive effect on the increase of the CO₂ emissions in the stable economic development stage (2003-2014) than those in the stage of economic recovery (1992-2002). The proportion of the tertiary industry, the trade openness, and foreign direct investment were transformed from negative factors into positive factors in the stable economic development stage (2003-2014). (3) Due to the over-urbanization of Kazakhstan before the independence, the level of urbanization continued to decline, urbanization was the first factor to curb CO₂ emissions during 1992-2014. Finally, some policy recommendations are put forward to reduce energy-related carbon emissions.