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Published on: April 1, 2019
A retrospective and predictive study of fertility rates in China from 2003 to 2018
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Renmin South Road 16, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, 610041, PR China.
Abstract:
A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on age-specific and birth-order-wise crude fertility rates and total fertility rates based on national sample surveys by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Unexpectedly, such fertility datasets were officially deleted since 2016. A time-series predictive study was conducted based on the Holt's Exponential Smoothing models to restore the deleted fertility data for 2016 and beyond, allowing a comprehensive analysis of fertility rates in China from 2003 to 2018. In all, population structure was aging fast, fertility rates continued to decrease to a substantially low level, and three Northeastern provinces displayed notable socioeconomic issues associated with low-fertility trap. Adjustment is essential for China to timely remove its still-present birth limit and devise social policies to revert the fertility downtrend.
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