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Closing yield gaps for rice self-sufficiency in China
Nanyan Deng1, Patricio Grassini2, Haishun Yang2
1National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China.
Nature Communications
|April 14, 2019
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Food Security
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- China is a major global rice producer, supplying 28% of the world's total.
- Rural-to-urban demographic shifts intensify competition for land and water resources.
- Maintaining rice self-sufficiency is critical for China's food security.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a spatial analysis of China's rice production potential.
- To evaluate scenarios for maintaining rice self-sufficiency by 2030.
- To identify optimal strategies for yield improvement and research investment.
Main Methods:
- Detailed bottom-up spatial analysis of rice production.
- Evaluation of yield-gap analysis methodologies (bottom-up vs. top-down).
- Scenario modeling for rice production to 2030.
Main Results:
- China is projected to remain self-sufficient in rice under current trends.
- Increasing yields in double-rice systems and specific single-rice provinces offers the greatest return on investment.
- Different analytical approaches yield divergent R&D priorities.
Conclusions:
- China's rice self-sufficiency is likely sustainable with targeted yield improvements.
- Strategic investment in research and development is crucial for future food security.
- Methodological choices significantly impact agricultural policy and R&D direction.
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