Increased influence of ENSO on Antarctic temperature since the Industrial Era

Under the influence of recent global warming, modulation of frequencies and amplitude of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impacts on global climate have become great concerns to the global community. Antarctic climate is sensitive to these changes owing to tropical and Southern Hemispheric (SH) teleconnections. Antarctic surface air temperature (SAT) reconstructed approximately for the past five centuries (~1533 to 1993 CE) based on multiple oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records of ice cores from East and West Antarctica show dominant oscillations in ENSO and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) frequency bands. Further, variance of the East Antarctica (EA) temperature record shows significant increasing trend at ENSO band and decreasing trend at PDO band since the industrial era (~1850 CE). This observation is consistent with the earlier report of increasing ENSO activity, reconstructed based on tropical-subtropical tree ring records. ENSO influence in the SH high-latitude is known to be characterized by Pacific South American (PSA) pattern reflected in the atmospheric pressure fields. Our investigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) forced model simulation results show an increasing trend in PSA activity since the industrial era. Thus, we suggest ENSO activity and its influence on Antarctic temperature are increasing in response to increasing radiative GHG forcing since the industrial era.