Mathematical modeling for the prediction of cerebral white matter lesions based on clinical examination data

Cerebral white matter lesions are ischemic symptoms caused mainly by microangiopathy; they are diagnosed by MRI because they show up as abnormalities in MRI images. Because patients with white matter lesions do not have any symptoms, MRI often detects the lesions for the first time. Generally, head MRI for the diagnosis and grading of cerebral white matter lesions is performed as an option during medical checkups in Japan. In this study, we develop a mathematical model for the prediction of white matter lesions using data from routine medical evaluations that do not include a head MRI. Linear discriminant analysis, logistic discrimination, Naive Bayes classifier, support vector machine, and random forest were investigated and evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation, using clinical data for 1,904 examinees (988 males and 916 females) from medical checkups that did include the head MRI. The logistic regression model was selected based on a comparison of accuracy and interpretability. The model variables consisted of age, gender, plaque score (PS), LDL, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and administration of antihypertensive medication (odds ratios: 2.99, 1.57, 1.18, 1.06, 1.12, and 1.52, respectively) and showed Areas Under the ROC Curve (AUC) 0.805, the model displayed sensitivity of 72.0%, and specificity 75.1% when the most appropriate cutoff value was used, 0.579 as given by the Youden Index. This model has shown to be useful to identify patients with a high-risk of cerebral white matter lesions, who can then be diagnosed with a head MRI examination in order to prevent dementia, cerebral infarction, and stroke.