Effects of simulated climate warming on the population dynamics of Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) and its parasitoids in...

Climate warming has considerable effects on crop development and pest population dynamics. Crucially, the tri-trophic responses of plants, herbivores and their natural enemies to warming are poorly understood. To delineate these interactive properties, a three-system approach and integrating life table methodology were used to examine the responses of wheat plants, English grain aphid and parasitoids under open-field infrared heating to simulate warming.

Warming significantly increased wheat biomass and grain weight, causing a phenological shift in plant growth. Importantly, warming significantly increased the number of aphids and the reproductive period, coupled with a higher net reproductive rate and intrinsic growth rate. Otherwise, duration of development, generation span, and population doubling time all decreased significantly. Warming had no effect on parasitoid abundance but resulted in a significant decrease in the rate of parasitism.

Warming may strengthen bottom-up effects on aphids by increasing wheat biomass, resulting in reduced regulation of aphid populations. Warming had a different effect on parasitoids between 2015 and 2016. These findings provide an important characterization of ecological mechanisms in plant-herbivore-parasitoid systems and give a theoretical foundation for improved forecasting of aphid population dynamics under climate change. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.