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Predicting disruptive instabilities in controlled fusion plasmas through deep learning.

Julian Kates-Harbeck1,2,3, Alexey Svyatkovskiy4,5, William Tang6,4

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Area of Science:

  • Nuclear Fusion Energy
  • Plasma Physics
  • Machine Learning Applications

Background:

  • Magnetic-confinement tokamak reactors promise sustainable, clean energy.
  • Plasma disruptions are a major challenge, halting power production and damaging components.
  • Accurate disruption prediction is critical for large-scale projects like ITER.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an advanced deep learning method for forecasting disruptions in tokamak reactors.
  • To improve upon existing first-principles and classical machine learning approaches.
  • To enable reliable disruption prediction across different fusion machines.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a deep learning approach trained on high-dimensional experimental data.
  • Leveraged supercomputing resources for enhanced accuracy and speed.
  • Trained models on data from DIII-D and Joint European Torus (JET) tokamaks.

Main Results:

  • The deep learning method demonstrated reliable disruption prediction capabilities.
  • Achieved successful cross-machine prediction, a key requirement for future reactors.
  • Enabled prediction with long warning times, facilitating active reactor control.

Conclusions:

  • Deep learning offers a powerful tool for advancing fusion energy science.
  • The developed method significantly enhances disruption forecasting for tokamaks.
  • This approach has broader implications for predicting complex physical systems.