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Updated: Jan 26, 2026

Design and Construction of an Urban Runoff Research Facility
Published on: August 8, 2014
High-resolution global urban growth projection based on multiple applications of the SLEUTH urban growth model
Yuerong Zhou1, Alvin C G Varquez2, Manabu Kanda2
1Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Melbourne School of Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. yuerongz@student.unimelb.edu.au.
Abstract:
As urban population is forecast to exceed 60% of the world's population by 2050, urban growth can be expected. However, research on spatial projections of urban growth at a global scale are limited. We constructed a framework to project global urban growth based on the SLEUTH urban growth model and a database with a resolution of 30 arc-seconds containing urban growth probabilities from 2020 to 2050. Using the historical distribution of the global population from LandScanTM as a proxy for urban land cover, the SLEUTH model was calibrated for the period from 2000 to 2013. This model simulates urban growth using two layers of 50 arc-minutes grids encompassing global urban regions. While varying growth rates are observed in each urban area, the global urban cover is forecast to reach 1.7 × 106 km2 by 2050, which is approximately 1.4 times that of the year 2012. A global urban growth database is essential for future environmental planning and assessments, as well as numerical investigations of future urban climates.
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