Simulating beach and dune evolution at decadal to centennial scale under rising sea levels

Area of Science:

• Coastal geomorphology
• Numerical modeling
• Climate change adaptation

Background:

• Existing cross-shore models lack comprehensive sea level rise integration.
• Aeolian transport and dune evolution require refined simulation methods.

Purpose of the Study:

• Develop and validate a numerical model for decadal to centennial beach-dune evolution.
• Incorporate sea level rise and enhance aeolian processes within a cross-shore model.
• Assess long-term climate change impacts on coastal morphology.

Main Methods:

• Enhanced an existing semi-empirical cross-shore model (CS-model).
• Integrated sea level rise effects and improved aeolian transport and dune evolution routines.
• Calibrated and validated the model using a seven-year dataset from Ängelholm Beach, Sweden.

Main Results:

• The model successfully simulates beach and dune evolution under various sea level rise scenarios.
• Calibration and validation confirmed the model's accuracy against empirical data.
• Simulations project coastal changes from 2018 to 2100.

Conclusions:

• The developed numerical model is a promising tool for long-term coastal impact assessment.
• The model effectively simulates beach-dune dynamics influenced by climate change.
• Further application can inform coastal management strategies for climate adaptation.