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Does austerity really kill?

Veronica Toffolutti1, Marc Suhrcke2

  • 1"Carlo F. Dondena'' Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policies, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

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|April 20, 2019
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Austerity measures increased all-cause mortality by 0.7%, while recessions generally decreased it. Suicides, however, saw increased mortality from both recessions and austerity policies.

Keywords:
AusterityRecession and healthSocioeconomic determinants of health

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Health Economics
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Previous literature suggests austerity negatively impacts health, but direct measurement is lacking.
  • Distinguishing macroeconomic fluctuations from fiscal policy effects on mortality is crucial for accurate assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explicitly measure the association between fiscal policy measures (austerity) and mortality.
  • To differentiate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations from fiscal policy on health outcomes.
  • To analyze the complex relationship between austerity, recessions, and various mortality causes.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of data from 28 European Union (EU) countries spanning 1991-2013.
  • Statistical examination of the correlation between fiscal policy indicators and mortality rates.
  • Sensitivity analysis excluding specific countries (Baltics, Romania, Hungary) to test robustness of findings.

Main Results:

  • Austerity regimes were associated with a 0.7% increase in all-cause mortality.
  • Recessions generally decreased mortality, while economic booms increased it, except for suicide mortality.
  • Fiscal stimuli significantly increased mortality from cirrhosis (3%) and vehicle accidents (4.3%).
  • Excluding certain Eastern European countries revealed austerity significantly increased suicide mortality (2.8%).

Conclusions:

  • Austerity's negative impact on all-cause mortality is largely offset by the mortality-reducing effects of recessions.
  • Suicide mortality presents a unique exception, experiencing a 'double-boost' from both recessions and austerity.
  • Fiscal policy decisions have complex and varied effects on population health across different causes of death.