Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high-resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Atmospheric Science
• Global Environmental Change

Background:

• Global warming is altering precipitation patterns worldwide.
• Understanding these changes is crucial for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze changes in precipitation amount, intensity, and frequency under global warming.
• To investigate precipitation probability distribution function (PDF) shifts across different latitudes and climate zones.

Main Methods:

• Utilized global high-resolution (16 km) climate model simulations from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS).
• Analyzed changes in zonal-mean precipitation and precipitation probability distribution functions (PDFs).

Main Results:

• Zonal-mean total precipitation increased globally, except in northern and southern subtropics.
• A shift towards more light precipitation (LP) and heavy precipitation (HP) at the expense of moderate precipitation (MP) was observed from the Tropics to midlatitudes.
• Polar regions showed an increase in all precipitation categories.
• In subtropical and mid-to-high latitude zones, land precipitation shifted towards higher intensity (increased HP, decreased MP and LP), while ocean precipitation showed varied trends (flattening or increased intensity).

Conclusions:

• Global warming drives significant shifts in precipitation intensity distributions.
• These changes vary regionally, with land areas generally experiencing more extreme precipitation events.