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Spatial Patterns of Crop Yield Change by Emitted Pollutant.
Drew Shindell1, Greg Faluvegi2, Prasad Kasibhatla1
1Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Durham NC USA.
Earth'S Future
|April 23, 2019
Summary
Global climate and air quality changes significantly impact crop yields. While wheat and maize yields decrease, rice yields have increased, with greenhouse gases and pollutants playing key roles.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
Background:
- Global staple crop yields are influenced by temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone.
- Previous research often analyzed these factors in isolation, limiting a comprehensive understanding.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the individual impacts of pollutants driving changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2, and ozone on global wheat, maize, and rice yields.
- To differentiate the effects of various greenhouse gases and aerosols on crop production.
Main Methods:
- Statistical modeling of field measurements and existing data.
- Analysis of present-day yields for wheat, maize, and rice worldwide.
- Attribution of yield changes to specific pollutants and climate factors.
Main Results:
- Global mean wheat and maize yields have decreased, while rice yields have increased.
- Well-mixed greenhouse gases are the primary drivers of these yield changes.
- Methane emissions significantly contribute to maize yield losses; CO2 impacts wheat yields differently in tropical versus temperate zones.
Conclusions:
- Future crop yields will be substantially affected by non-CO2 greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, and aerosols.
- Accurate crop modeling and assessments of climate change mitigation strategies require consideration of these factors.
- Further research on aerosol effects and nutritional impacts is necessary.
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